The price of Bitcoin (BTC) is currently hovering near the $91,000 mark. An analysis of trading activity on prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi shows that traders' expectations regarding the leading cryptocurrency reaching the $100,000 level during 2025 are cautious. For instance, the implied probability of the contract "BTC above $100K by EOY 2025" stands at around 55% on Polymarket, with Kalshi's equivalent market showing a slightly higher figure of about 60%. While a majority leans toward growth, these mixed odds demonstrate that market participants are keeping their expectations "firmly tethered to earth," reports The WP Times with reference to Telegram.
This caution among traders is attributed to a number of economic and technical factors. Investors are specifically factoring into their bets risks associated with a potential economic downturn, persistently high inflation, or unexpected shifts in central bank policy, which could lead to a reduction in overall market liquidity. Furthermore, the $100,000 price level is widely viewed as a strong psychological and technical resistance point, where significant profit-taking pressure is expected, potentially hindering a sharp surge in BTC's value.
An additional tempering factor is regulatory uncertainty. Ongoing scrutiny by global regulators, particularly concerning stablecoins and the operating rules for cryptocurrency exchanges, introduces an element of risk that restrains aggressive "bullish" bets that would forecast a substantial overshoot of the target level by the end of next year.
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